The government stress that new ways of recording crime have inflated the figures by 5 per cent, but the fact remains that overall crime has increased under their measurements in the year 2001-2002. However, the 2002 British Crime Survey - which asks people for their first-hand experiences of crime - tells a different story. This claims that crime rates have fallen by 2 per cent over the past year, with the chances of being a victim of crime now standing at its lowest since the survey began in 1981.

Violent crime is only a very small proportion of overall crime in the UK but it is the type of crime that people fear most. Cases attract dramatic headlines and shock stories that only fuel the fear of crime even further. For that reason, getting violent crime under control is crucial.

Crime in the city
There are also new types of crime adding urgency to the debate. Car-jackings, for instance, are a new terrifying threat, with 1,200 incidents in one year alone. Meanwhile, mobile phone theft is soaring. An amazing 700,000 were stolen in Britain in the last 12 months - one every minute. In some urban areas, mobile phone thefts account for 40 per cent of violent crime.

Muggers stalk the streets of big cities. More than 40 per cent of street crime happens in London, with 14 of the top 20 robbery 'blackspots' in the capital.

Individual cases of violent crime provide a dramatic demonstration of this statistical backdrop. Just this year in London estate agent Tim Robinson was stabbed to death after parking his car outside his home, a young woman was shot in the head by a mobile phone thief, and another man was killed in a shoot out at a busy London restaurant.

Meanwhile, cases like the Stephen Lawrence and Damilola Taylor murders seem to demonstrate that even when arrests are made for violent crime the police are failing to get convictions.

Why is violent crime on the up?
Experts are divided over the exact causes of the current surge in violent crime - which has been mirrored across Europe. Lack of parental control is seen as one factor. Figures show that 40 per cent of street crime is committed by 10- to 16-year-olds. The crimes are often committed while they play truant from school and an amazing quarter of all 15- and 16-year-old boys admit to carrying a knife or other weapon.

Alcohol and drugs are also helping fuel the rise of violent crime, with the use of crack cocaine reaching epidemic levels, particularly among 14- to 18-year-olds. At the same time prices of guns are tumbling - changing hands for just £200.

Tackling the rise
So can Tony Blair fulfil his promise and reverse the trend in violent crime statistics? He is certainly introducing some stringent measures, including backing a plan to cut Child Benefit from parents of persistent offenders. Police officers will be stationed in some schools to help stamp out truancy, while even ex-SAS members have been recruited to help tackle gangs on council estates.

The government is also looking at ideas of zero tolerance introduced by ex-Mayor Guiliani in New York that dramatically reduced violent crime there. A New Yorker is now six times less likely to get mugged than a Londoner.

Critics, however, say the government has already announced 50 initiatives on crime with mixed results. And Home Secretary David Blunkett has already admitted that one of those - a £20million anti-robbery scheme - has been unimpressive.

Sending more offenders to prison may not be the answer either. We have a record number of people in prison, with 70,000 behind bars. And we already lock up more young people than any other country. Yet 75 per cent of them go on to re-offend when they get out.

Home Secretary David Blunkett, however, insisted that policies recently introduced by the government would reverse the increase in crime and were 'beginning to work'. However he added: 'I am not pretending for a moment there is not a problem.'

Blair knows the importance of cracking crime. After all, his own son Euan was a victim of a mugging last October. But it isn't just Blair who should worry. A fear of violent crime was said to have massively contributed to extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen's shock strong showing in the French presidential race. In Britain the BNP has fed off fears of violent crime in urban areas like Burnley.

Blair needs to get the problem under control before his reign in office is crime-jacked.